No longer risk, now uncertainty rules


Hmm, interesting paragraph on the credit squeeze and the times we live in:

Excerpt from the Complexity Digest: “So the rules of the game have now fundamentally changed. Our global financial system has become so staggeringly complex and opaque that we’ve moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty.

“In a world of risk, we can judge dangers and opportunities by using the best evidence at hand to estimate the
probability of a particular outcome. But in a world of uncertainty, we can’t estimate probabilities, because we don’t have any clear basis for making such a judgment. In fact, we might not even know what the possible outcomes are.

“Surprises keep coming out of the blue, because we’re fundamentally ignorant of our own ignorance. We’re surrounded by unknown unknowns.”

* From Risk To Uncertainty, Thomas Homer-Dixon , 08/03/19, Toronto Globe and
Mail, PDF

 

Response to Economist article on social networks


Hmm, interesting in light of IT Counts..

At InternExperts, we’re frequently asked by our clients about advertising opportunities on social networks, particularly facebook, and to a lesser extent, MySpace. This Economist article echoes the increasing doubts the industry is having about whether these large social networks can be monetized effectively in a broad scale. We share these doubts and generally steer our clients away from these high-reach, social networks.

One of the most promising Internet trends in the past five years has been the increasing focus on peer interactions and the increasing ease at which loosely-coupled social, political, and economic interests and be identified and linked. This is one of the fundamental benefits that Internet technologies offer. But somewhere along the line, we became fixated with the current notion of a social network. Since many brand advertisers require mass-market audiences (i.e. “reach”) to make effective use of ad budgets, these two concepts were linked and just assumed to be the next great business opportunity. From our perspective, there are many ways to enable people and consumers to share information and opinions among like-minded peers. We are only in the first of many product cycle iterations of social network concepts and very early in the learning-curve of how to effect social interactions in a compelling way, much less figuring out how to monetize these interactions. Early experiments frequently fail, but our learnings from these failures is critical to ultimate success.

We are beginning to conclude that these large-scale generic social networks are not effective for most advertisers. These networks are generally focused on social interaction with limited economic intent. It is difficult for advertisers to inject themselves into the discourse without appearing self-serving and intrusive.

Some opportunities are emerging for advertisers, though, on social networks. These networks reflect the next iteration of social network models. Typically, they are more specialized, niche-focused with passionate, active participants. Successful examples of these social networks are often not standalone, but well-integrated into an existing brand, or “mid-tail” vertical website. These sites may not offer the reach of a facebook or MySpace, but the audience is highly relevant and engaged.

A good example in the US is with the DIY cable network (part of the Scripps Networks media conglomerate), which focuses on home improvement projects. They have successfully incorporated social network capabiliites (using KickApps’ system) and have created an imaginative and highly-interactive forum for their viewers to share and learn from each other’s home improvement projects. It’s also been a commercial success as they have successfully sold ad inventory within the social network area, at a premium CPM rate.

The adage that “everyone is passionate about something” holds true for these niche, social networks: They may suffer from limited audience reach, but they can offer advertisers a high-quality and engaged audience. So, while we share The Economist’s generally dim view of the current generation of social networks, InternExperts remains more optimistic about the commerical opportunities for future iterations of the social networking concept.

Recent reports of social networking’s demise may be slightly premature.


There has been a 5% slowdown in new UK users to the larger social networks, Facebook and MySpace, between December 2007 and January this year.

Alex Burmaster, an analyst at Nielsen Online which compiled the figures showing the decline, says: “The slow down in social networks is being somewhat exaggerated. It’s a natural form of any growth that we see in the online eco-system.

“Something starts from a very small base and grows very quickly. It becomes popular, but then it’s only natural at some point that the growth has to stop, because it cannot carry on growing at that rate, because there is only so many people it can grow into.” (Full BBC story)

How do you drive cultural change using a social networking site?


I asked this question on LinkedIn three weeks ago but I guess I posted in the wrong location as I didn’t get even one answer.

Q: How do you drive cultural change using a social networking site? Just launched a social networking site for accountants IT Counts, with the first mini-community focusing on IT and accounts, hence the question.

So I’ve had a quick think and come up with two brain-stormed starting points:

1. Ten Common Objections to Social Media Adoption and How You Can Respond

2. More on Obama’s Use of the New Web

 

 

Microsoft makes friends with social networks


Hmm, interesting..

Microsoft has announced collaborations that will see Windows Live more tightly integrated with the world’s top five social networking sites.

The software giant is working with Facebook, Bebo, Hi5, LinkedIn and Tagged to exchange a set of APIs which allow users to easily and securely move their contacts and relationships between services.

“Social networks are becoming a fundamental way in which we communicate, and we are happy to be a part of that,” said a spokesman for Microsoft.

“These partnerships will enhance our users’ online experiences and the way in which they choose to communicate with their friends and families.”

Users will be able to invite their Windows Live Contacts to join them on the social networking services without the need for screen-scraping, or providing private user credentials to outside networks.

“We continue to explore ways to open up Facebook in safe and secure ways that benefit our users and we are working with Microsoft, a trusted partner, to test a new data portability initiative,” said a spokeswoman for Facebook.

“Facebook will continue to work with other trusted partners to explore new initiatives around data portability.”

As part of this collaboration, Microsoft is introducing a new Windows Live Messenger website where users can invite contacts from any of the five social networks to join them.

The service is live today on Facebook and Bebo, and will become live on Hi5, LinkedIn and Tagged in the coming months.

 

Social Web sites struggle to find the path to profit


Hmm, interesting..
 
Tuesday, March 25, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO: Virtual beer and vampires may no longer be enough to keep members of social networks like Facebook and News Corp.’s MySpace riveted to their computers.

Instead, the key to the future of these Web sites may lie in more practical functions, like making plans, booking tickets or checking stock quotes.

“Right now, the big challenge for social networking services is finding a way to simultaneously encourage user loyalty and revenue growth,” said Ri Pierce-Grove, an analyst with Datamonitor, a research firm.

Simply put, if people do more things on social networks, they stay online longer, share with friends and reveal more about their tastes and habits, allowing advertisers to focus their messages better. Advertisers usually pay sites based on the number of times an ad is clicked, and people are more likely to do that if the ad is specifically aimed at them.

EMarketer, a research firm, predicts that U.S. advertising spending on social networks will exceed $1.6 billion this year as the sites and companies that make applications for them push to harvest more personal information posted online, then sell it to advertisers.

But the search for the best way to do so is still on.

Advertising on Google’s social networks, including a partnership with MySpace, brought lower-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter, Sergey Brin, a co-founder of Google, said in January.

“I don’t think we have the killer best way to advertise and monetize social networks yet,” he added.

Meanwhile, people may be tiring of the activities that social networks do offer.

Although these sites have added thousands of members in the past year, comScore data show that fewer people are signing on, and members are visiting their profiles less.

For instance, the number of U.S. visitors on MySpace fell to 68 million in February from about 72 million in October, while the average time people spent on their Facebook profiles dropped to 161.3 minutes from 195.6 minutes.

This indicates U.S. social networking is at the “mature stage of the growth curve,” said a comScore spokesman, Andrew Lipsman.

Part of what made social networks popular are widgets. One of these small programs, “Vampires,” lets members virtually “bite” friends. Another application allows people to prod their friends virtually by sending messages that they have been “poked.”

Millions of people got hooked on these widgets, creating a new audience – and potentially a new market – for advertisers hoping to tag their messages to these applications.

The excitement around widgets touched a high point in January when Slide, which makes a tool that lets people create slide shows and put them up on any social network, secured $50 million from large institutional investors.

But some wonder whether squeezing sustainable cash from this audience will require more than fun and games.

Investors “are going to lose of lot of money,” said Charles Moldow, general partner of the venture capital firm Foundation Capital. The widgets currently in fashion are very “lightweight” and do not command the loyalty of their audiences, he said.

Social networks benefit from engaged users who share their likes and dislikes with friends, helping advertisers through word-of-mouth, or “viral marketing.”

“If you can tap into that and then there’s sharing, if you have a big audience that’s engaged with you, you will be able to make money off it,” said David Card, an analyst with Jupiter Research.

Although many fun-and-games widgets do have this viral power, analysts believe there is more money to be made by making these applications richer.

Useful widgets that let people share experiences aid viral marketing and increase the efficacy of targeted advertisements, while keeping people online longer.

“Widgets that keep you updated on concert tour dates for your favorite bands, weather widgets – there’s a lot of promise in that kind of campaign,” Card said.

A conviction that this is the road to success for social networking has led many investors to fund useful widgets.

Silicon Valley venture firm Khosla Ventures and IAC/InterActiveCorp’s Ticketmaster have invested in iLike, a program that lets people post songs on profiles and has a link to Apple’s iTunes store so friends can sample and buy the music.

But many analysts cautioned that marketing tailored to people’s online behavior – while an exciting opportunity for companies – might not succeed if people feel their privacy is intruded upon.

Sites are also grappling with the challenge of serving up unobtrusive ads that will entice users to click and share with friends.

Yahoo joins Google’s open-source alliance


Hmm, looks interesting..

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO: Yahoo said it would join an alliance to be led by Google, its principal rival, that will try to make it easier for programmers to write software that can run on the pages of many social networks and other Web sites.

Google announced Tuesday that it would give up control of the alliance and turn it over to a nonprofit foundation. Google, Yahoo and MySpace, another member of the group, will be among founding members of the group, the OpenSocial Foundation.

The addition of Yahoo broadens the potential reach of the foundation. The group is working on standards that will let developers create programs that can run on any social network or Web site that embraces them. Such programs might, for example, allow users to let friends know the music or movies they enjoy.

The creation of the OpenSocial alliance last fall was widely seen as a response by Google and others to the growing power of Facebook, which has persuaded thousands of outside developers to build applications for its site. Those applications have helped bolster Facebook’s popularity.

The creators of many of the most popular Facebook applications have since said they plan to adapt their programs to be compatible with OpenSocial.

Although Google is not a major force in social networking, its rivalry with Facebook appears to be intensifying. Facebook, for instance, has signed an advertising partnership with Microsoft and has recruited several prominent programmers and executives from Google, including Sheryl Sandberg, who became Facebook’s chief operating officer.

A Facebook spokeswoman, Brandee Barker, said it would not be part of OpenSocial. “Facebook is not joining this foundation, but the company remains focused on advancing Facebook Platform to benefit the developer community and help users communicate and share information more efficiently,” Barker said.

Yahoo considered joining the alliance for months, according to a person with direct knowledge of its plans. But Yahoo executives worried that Google might exert too much control over the evolution of the alliance and over intellectual property it created, that person said.

In a conference call with reporters, Google and Yahoo executives dismissed the idea that the decision to put OpenSocial in the hands of a foundation had been a response to Yahoo’s concerns.

Joe Kraus, director of product management at Google, said the foundation represented “more an evolution of where OpenSocial is heading” than a response to concerns raised by any one member. And Wade Chambers, vice president for platforms at Yahoo, praised Google’s stewardship of the standard so far.

The foundation, to be created within 90 days, will “ensure the neutrality and longevity of OpenSocial as an open, community-governed specification for building social applications across the Web,” the companies said.

Yahoo gave no details on when or how it would adopt the OpenSocial standards. So far, only MySpace and Orkut, Google’s social network, have introduced OpenSocial, Kraus said.

Radiology search engine


One from David Rothman back in January 2007, updated with help from Steven Chan at radRounds, to say it’s now on a Ning-based med imaging search engine. Note, it’s currently by invitation only too:

“Yottalook is a free radiology-centric search engine based on Google’s indexing technology with proprietary relevance algorithm by iVirtuoso. Currently, Yottalook Images and Yottalook References search engines are available for use. Yottalook Image has specially been designed to search radiology images from various peer-reviewed online sources and currently has access to over 100,000 images. Yottalook References has been designed to search online radiology sources only. Try various refinement options to narrow your search requests even further.”

Rate shares, rating management


Nice to see how the internet is adding transparency to business (an issue covered in Wired magazine recently). I see even that my former Medicexchange PLC boss Adam Boyse is up for feedback on hotstocked.com for example.

Talking about rating business I was talking to a friend who works for ITV PLC who said they were worth a look at buying shares right now as the new CEO, Michael Grade, has put in place a new team. They are also looking at exploiting current media products to their ‘full 360′, and with the current price relatively low, might be worth a shot?

Bored of Facebook video?


It’s funnier than actually logging into Facebook..