Author Archives: Stuart Hall

About Stuart Hall

An award-winning web professional with over nine years in both in-house and agency-side roles. With four years web 2.0 experience, from devising social media strategy for clients through to 1-2-1 online community mentoring.

How to design large complex online communities using social science

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Sorry if I jump around a bit in this blog post but by reading these points, and listening to the video, you’ll have a better idea of how social science can help you design a successful community, using a specific kind of moderation approach. Or at least how to impress to use the difference between a theory vs design-type approach to community building to respond better to new customer needs.

OK, I am paraphrasing here so bear with me, with me taking notes from Robert Kraut’s Stanford presentation above. My aim is to show how social science can inform good online community design. So the first point is that Kraut makes that I want to highlight is that real community design is “highly multidimensional”. And that this is at odds with logic of social science which seeks to understand effects of one variable at a time, while all other variables are else held constant, to discover causality. OK, so that’s some of the fundamentals sorted. Skip to this section on the video to hear the explanation.

This social science approach is at odds with (i.e. online community) design where you are trying to figure out the configuration of all possible variables to have the effect that you want to have. Kraut says that basically with design you don’t want one variable at a time you want ‘kitchen sink experiments which are theory-based experiments which you want to try out in a relatively cheap way.

But they use agent based modelling – allow theory to be tested as models in community environment, change member behaviour, which change environment (see 1:12:56) – where the ‘Identity Benefit’ is greater when agent’s interests are similar to group interests:

Here’s how to simply capture that ‘Identity Benefit’:
# viewed messages that match // # viewed messages

In comparison for the other principal type of community benefit to members Kraut identifies, the ‘Bond-based benefit’ is greater when there is repeated interaction. Kind of obvious I guess, but this is social science, so still worth stating!

Agent-based modelling and simulated communities results

And from simulated communities what Kraut found is that the simulated agent models (taking the place of community members) produced results very similar to that observed in real Usenet groups.

So the next step is that if we have a working agent model that shows how community works we can test out different types of moderation techniques, which can test in this simulated community.

From this Kraut found that ‘Personalised moderation’ out performs ‘Community level moderation’, though this really matters significantly when dealing with a large volume of content, or diverse content. In other words ‘Personalised moderation’ works well with large complex communities.

personalised-moderation

And as an example, I see this personalised moderation functionality  appears to be available in community platform Telligent’s latest version of their analytics, which sounds useful. Be good to know which other major community platforms like Lithium offer such beneficial functionality, and how well it really works in the day-to-day:

Your community can now offer its participants dynamic and personalized recommendations of both people and content. Telligent Analytics looks at your community’s data, compares it with each member’s unique interests, and then delivers personalized recommendations to that member. Telligent Analytics doesn’t just tell you how your community’s doing; it applies the analytics to improve your community members’ experience.

So if you want to go into this study applied in more practical detail here’s Robert Kraut’s paper (pdf) with the graphs and stats:

A Simulation for Designing Online Community: Member Motivation, Contribution, and Discussion Moderation – (pdf: 10.1.1.141.6657)

Or maybe you’d like to read the chapter’s of Kraut’s 2012 book, Building successful online communities: Evidence-based social design:

  • Resnick, P. & Kraut, R. Introduction [PDF]
  • Kraut, R. E. & Resnick, P. Encouraging contributions to online communities [PDF]
  • Ren, Y, Kraut, R. E. & Kiesler, S. Encouraging commitment in online communities [PDF]
  • Kraut, R. E., Burke, M. & Riedl, J. Dealing with newcomers [PDF]
  • Kiesler, S, Kittur, A., Kraut, R., & Resnick, P. Regulating behavior in online communities [PDF]
  • Resnick, P, Konstan, J & Chen, Y. Starting a community. [PDF]

Getting your brand’s tone of voice right, and making it pay

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I like the guide to creating an authentic tone of voice from Rosie Siman on the 360i blog, as it makes the point that consumers find it pretty intuitive to shift how they interact online depending on the online context, while brands find it not so easy shall we say:

In today’s new media landscape, consumers manage a distributed digital identity – one that changes depending on platform, audience and even interest group.

Surprisingly, shifting among these nuanced states isn’t such a feat. It feels natural, even intuitive.

But when brands attempt to do the same, the results can feel schizophrenic and confused.

How to Develop Your Brand’s Social Tone of Voice

Of course on another level part of this is part of a wider issue about how to relate and connect with your customers, which relates to listening to them and understanding what they enjoy. It’s back to that point that we are taught that we think first and feel second, which is fine until you realise how this splits the behaviour of customers from that of brands by and large:

We live in a world where we are taught from the start that we are thinking creatures that feel. The truth is, we are feeling creatures that think.

In turn online consumers “tend to ignore most information available and instead ‘slice off’ a few relevant information or behavioral cues that are often social to make intuitive decisions,” as Brian Solis puts it in ‘The 6 Pillars of Social Commerce: Understanding the psychology of engagement’.

None more so does this distinction appear online when the brand comes over as self-controlled and artificial. So loosen up and inject some real emotion – and then make sure you track the results in your metrics.

It may also help to research tone of voice using a social sentiment package like Radian6 to surface the keywords, and to have an idea of the % positive vs negative sentiment.

Who knows, getting your tone of voice right might even shift the sentiment around your brand, which in turn impacts on conversion (measure, measure, measure). It may start off as ‘just an idea’ but if you can link the tone of voice change to the metrics which connect to the bottom line then you’re onto a winner.

Of course it helps if you have a budget. When I was at Sony we used Netway to carry out MRI-based behavioural research to show the differing impact of email marketing methodologies on consumer responses. Here’s a little taster of their scientific-based approach. I also like their open-source style approach to allowing you to disseminate results too, subject to attribution:

Thanks to Google Maps, Richard III Grey Friars plaque on Street View

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Greyfriars

In 2010 I uploaded this image taken off Google Map’s Street View of the King Richard III memorial plaque on Grey Friars in  a blog post, as I thought it was a shame it had been covered over by a ‘To Let’ sign.

I was even more surprised to see the plaque still showing it covered over on Google Map’s Street View after the discovery of Richard’s body; so I wrote to Google to see if they’d take another image and upload that instead. They replied on 23rd February, to say they’d consider the issue:

“Thank you for informing us of your request regarding Street View imagery. We’re currently reviewing the imagery you reported so that we can take the appropriate action per your request. We appreciate your patience and assistance as we work to resolve this situation.”

So not expecting much I checked today, and indeed a new image taken in the city sunshine shows the plaque as it should be; so any visitors from abroad looking at the area via Google maps can see the historic area, and the plaque, and appreciate better the city’s rich history.


View Larger Map

Three books on thinslicing worth reading

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Reading this piece from Peter Adam on the use of thinslicing this morning in in-game decision making it was useful to note that thinslicing works best when the information being analysed is bounded, that is when there is a ‘yes/no’ choice for the subconscious brain:

“The human brain is fantastic at providing answers to complex yes/no questions quickly, but it starts to break down when the questions being presented are unbounded.* Gladwell provides many examples in Blink of complex snap decisions being made correctly when phrased as yes or no questions.”

In addition in comments there appears to be 3 useful books worth following up on in this field:

1. Art of Learning by Josh Waitzin (a seminal work in the search for competence and mastery for me – I lend both my copies out frequently)

2. Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer (influenced Gladwell’s Blink heavily)

3. Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (these last two books are almost a point-counterpoint view of decision heuristics, and without either being right or wrong you get a more holistic view of the decision-making progress)

Do British Gas employees all sing from the same hymn book?

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I used the British Gas contact form to email to ask for my electricity direct debit to be retained at £38 on Friday.

I received a reply saying why British Gas was recommended that I increase to £76, but noted that the retention at £38 debit was an option.

I replied asking to retain the £38 debit.

The reply from the same customer service rep then rejected my request and stated that the new level was to be implemented at £76.

I then called customer service from a pub round the corner from Old Bond Street on Saturday afternoon, round the corner from where Margaret Thatcher was staying at the Ritz, and spoke to a new rep and asked for the £38 rate, and this was agreed.

I then received an email from confirming the £38 debit on my request. I followed a link asking for my experience of customer service, and included this account and noted that there appeared to be an issue, that the system for fixing direct debits is inconsistently understood by British Gas customer service representatives.just before midnight on Sunday a new email popped into my Inbox.

This one said that now British Gas was fixing the rate at £65. I emailed back a complaint this time and asked for compensation, explained all the previous again, and went to sleep. I awoke to a new email confirming the complaint had been received.

Then Tuesday morning, a new email from customer services to say while they really preferred the £65 direct debit that they would fix my monthly rate at £38, and credited my account with £10! I checked my account page and this was confirmed, though it also included a handy graphic in bright red which showed how much I would be in debit if I consumed at the rate of the previous bill.

Yes, I thought, but I immediately paid the previous debit balance on presentation of the bill. This fact obviously does not register, as it’s not part of the ‘system’, even though you can in theory fix your direct debit at whatever rate you like, this is not taken into account.

Because at the end of the day, ladies and gentlemen, this is not a customer-centric system, it’s a direct debit system, and it’s set up for British Gas’s benefit, not yours.

PS: A few days later someone from British Gas rang me asking for ‘Roy’. I asked what number, and they gave my mobile number. I said there was no ‘Roy’ on this number. Hey, so I can take a hint. So time to switch back to E.ON who had the good grace to send me a small cheque a couple of months ago.

How useful is the Community Manifesto for organisations?

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Included below is the Community Manifesto created recently at SXSW, but how useful is it for your organisation? For example, how well does it support emerging new forms of community management, such as ‘employee advocacy‘?

And here’s some real community managers at the event talking about what it is to be a community manager:

Burning money?

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Burning

Fuel poverty and health campaigners today called on the newly launched Public Health England to address the devastating impact of cold homes on the health of the nation.

Campaigners welcomed the shift in responsibility for public health to local authorities and the opportunity this creates to address a major root cause of health problems in the UK – the woeful levels of insulation in the nation’s homes.

Mostly as a result of poor insulation levels, fuel poverty now affects over 5 million households in the UK. Living in cold homes doubles the likelihood of a respiratory illness such as asthma in children and quadruples the risk of mental health problems for teenagers. Fuel poverty is estimated to cost the NHS over £1bn every year.

The Energy Bill Revolution campaign estimates that on average over 7,000 people die every year from living in cold homes.  The big freeze that has affected the UK in recent weeks almost certainly means that more people have died because they cannot keep their homes warm.

The Energy Bill Revolution is calling for carbon tax to be used to fund an ambitious energy efficiency programme to super-insulate the homes of the fuel poor. The Government will collect over £60 billion in carbon tax over the next 15 years which is enough to make every fuel poor home highly energy efficient and slash their energy bill by over £300 ever year.

Carbon Tax can provide a massive financial boost for Public Health England and local authorities to support the delivery of such a programme.  This would help improve the health of some of the UK’s most vulnerable citizens, keeping them out of hospital and easing the burden on the NHS.

The Department of Health’s new ‘Public Health Outcomes Framework for England, 2013-2016’ identifies reducing fuel poverty as one of its key indicators for addressing the wider determinants of heath. Reducing mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and excess winter deaths are also identified as indicators against which the whole public health system should deliver improvements. It is vital that local authorities, in partnership with health and well-being boards, prioritise these indicators in local strategies if they are to fulfil their responsibilities to protect the health of their local population.

 Jo Butcher, Public Health Adviser for Friends of the Earth, said:

“As energy bills continue to soar and another cold snap hits the UK, millions of fuel poor households face difficult ‘heat or eat’ choices. It is a national disgrace that so many die each year due to cold, damp and poorly insulated housing. Public Health England must prioritise action to tackle fuel poverty and the Government must use carbon tax to fund a much bigger programme to insulate UK homes. Energy efficiency is commonly perceived to be the domain of the environment sector but I hope the new public health service will demonstrate it has a central role to play. The transfer of public health to local authorities is good news – they are used to managing housing and environmental health issues and are well placed to bring together the range of services that need to be involved in tackling the cold homes crisis.”

Jane Landon, Deputy Chief Executive at the National Heart Forum, commented:

“Cold, damp homes are responsible for avoidable deaths and needless health problems for many people in this country. The Government has committed to reducing avoidable mortality and action to tackle fuel poverty and its effects must be a priority to help achieve this. We welcome the establishment of Public Health England. Its role in the delivery of public health nationally and locally and its focus on reducing inequalities is a new opportunity to tackle fuel poverty.”

Energy Bill Revolution, the largest fuel poverty alliance ever assembled, is backed by 120 organisations representing the children’s, health, environmental, housing, disability and consumer sectors, businesses, academia, politicians, local councils and the public. The Energy Bill Revolution is asking Government to recycle the substantial funds it receives from carbon tax revenues (an average of £4bn annually over the next 15 years) into energy efficiency programmes to eradicate fuel poverty www.energybillrevolution.org

Startup metrics – one VC’s top 10

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Here’s Redpoint VC Tomasz Tunguz’s top 10 metrics, including a new one for me – TSM – or trailing six month (average), which he says are the ones he’s found most useful in board meetings:

With the analytics tools today, it’s easy to measure hundreds if not thousands of different metrics for your business. Cutting through all the chaff to determine the most important or insightful metrics can be quite a challenge.

Below are the ten metrics I’ve found to be most useful in board meetings. They answer the questions of how should a startup founder might measuring the business at the highest level. You should have many more metrics than these, but I’ve highlighted the ones that I recommend presenting to your board and reviewing each week.

Metrics Format

Clear data leads to productive conversations. To best understand a data point and its implications, we have to put it in context.

I’ve found dividing top level data in three slides, one for company priority (Distribution, Engagement, Revenue) helps to set the right context. Within the slide, a table that shows the metric and compares it to last month, then explicitly calculates the monthly change, the trailing six month average and finally compares the metric to the goal best communicates the state of that metric. See below for an example.

Metric This month Last Month % change TSM Average Goal
Active Users 100,000 50,000 100% 125% 75%
Total User Base 500,000 400,000 25% 7% 10%

The TSM Average column is the Trailing Six Month Compound Growth Rate. It is calculated in this way:

(ending_value/starting_value)^(1/num_periods-1)-1.

In most businesses, a monthly growth percent is too volatile to be meaningful. However the TSM Average smooths out the monthly change. Comparing the monthly to the TSM, we can get a sense of whether the monthly growth is accelerating or decelerating and how it compares to the goal you set each quarter. In this example, the total user growth was slower this month than in the past six month, but activity is way up. The next question, the one board members and founders should ask, is why?

Metrics/Question Pairs

Now that we have the base format of the metrics, let’s talk about which metrics matter. Each metric is followed by the question it’s designed to answer. Pick the ones that are relevant to your business.

Distribution

  • New users added last month by channel/TSM growth rate: How are well are we growing the user base? Which user sources are the best?
  • Total user base/TSM growth rate: How important is our monthly growth compared to our total user base?
  • Cost of customer acquisition, lifetime value, pay back period: Can we grow faster through paid acquisition? Are we acquiring customers profitably? How much can we afford to spend on new customers? How is this changing over time?

Engagement

  • Active users (can defined in several different ways depending on your product) by channel/TSM growth rate: Are we getting better at giving our customers what they want/need? Which channels of users are most effective in finding us the right kind of user?
  • % of users using top 3 key features in a given month: Are our product initiatives the right ones?

Revenue

  • Revenue / TSM Revenue growth: Are we growing our revenue?
  • Conversion to paid rate in that month/by cohort: How many users converted to paid? Are we improving our ability to convert customers to paid?
  • Avg spend per paying customer of a managed account vs solo account: What is the impact of the account management team?
  • Churn rate/ TSM Churn rate: How well do we retain our customers?
  • Burn rate: When are we profitable? When do we run out of cash? When do we need to raise?

These are the metrics that have been most valuable/insightful for me working with our companies.

So if that didn’t do the trick and get you focusing on the numbers maybe this fun video from Guy Kawasaki at UC Berkley will help – skip to 08:46 to bypass the introduction – and to get straight to the first mistake entrepreneurs make:

Guy focuses on one simple message, if you wanted to sum it up, it’s that’s VC’s are just interested in the numbers. But that begs the question, what numbers are they interested in when seeking investment?

Here’s Tomasz’s answer when I asked him that generic question: “Each business is different. Each VC is different. But ultimately if you can show profitable unit economics I think that’s a good start.”

So my suggestion? To give yourself a better chance of succeeding ask the VC before your meeting what they use as key generic KPIs to judge investment, and why? Then adapt to your specific business case.

eBay's sportscar

Summly bought by Yahoo!

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Party Time

Party Time

Text of Summly Nick D’Aloisio’s Summly purchase response below. Note that the FT reports that the app will close but Mr D’Aloisio’s technology will be integrated to Yahoo’s mobile apps. BTW before I forget, see the blog post comment citing Summly as an example of ‘thinslicing’:

In true Summly fashion, I will keep this short and sweet.

I am delighted to announce Summly has signed an agreement to be acquired by Yahoo!. Our vision is to simplify how we get information and we are thrilled to continue this mission with Yahoo!’s global scale and expertise. After spending some time on campus, I discovered that Yahoo! has an inspirational goal to make people’s daily routines entertaining and meaningful, and mobile will be a central part of that vision. For us, it’s the perfect fit.

When I founded Summly at 15, I would have never imagined being in this position so suddenly. I’d personally like to thank Li Ka-Shing and Horizons Ventures for having the foresight to back a teenager pursuing his dream. Also to our investors, advisors and of course the fantastic team for believing in the potential of Summly. Without you all, this never would have been possible. I’d also like to thank my family, friends and school for supporting me.

Most importantly, thank you to our wonderful users who have helped contribute to us receiving Apple’s Best Apps of 2012 award for Intuitive Touch! We will be removing Summly from the App Store today but expect our summarization technology will soon return to multiple Yahoo! products – see this as a ‘power nap’ so to speak.

With over 90 million summaries read in just a few short months, this is just the beginning for our technology. As we move towards a more refined, liberated and intelligent mobile web, summaries will continue to help navigate through our ever expanding information universe.

Sincerely,

Nick
Founder