What’s the ROI of social media?


My first look at ROI for social media focuses on revenue conversion, not surprisingly having recently worked in the online price comparison marketplace within eBay Inc this is an obvious starting point for me:

To explain that tweet (inspired by the holy grail of social media which is figuring out the return on investment (ROI) – it started with a good simple equation suggestion in the Hubspot webinar – slide 45:

View more presentations from HubSpot Internet Marketing
I then found a LTV calculator online. There it is, complete with LTV calculation examples. Use the equation with the LTV calculator and you can derive %ROI.
Ooh, one last thing you need to agree for cost of acquisition itself to determine whether the cost is determined by first action acquisition (eg came across you via  blog post, which is where you determine COA) or last action (see slide 48) acquisition (they went away, but came back via PPC Ad before buying). Up to you. Of course, there is no single ROI for social media. Above is just one way to do it around customer acquisition and retention, if that is a key overall business goal.
The gaming apporach to ROI
In a sector which uses metrics to guide day to day development this is another approach:
  • Exposed Persons (EP) = The number of persons exposed to the social media campaign.
  • Acquisition Rate (AR) = The percentage of EP that become new customers.
  • ARPU_monthly (ARPUm) = The average revenue per user/customer per month.
  • Churn_monthly (Cm) = The percentage chance of losing a customer at the end of each month.
  • We can then calculate revenue from the social media campaign as = (EP*AR*ARPUm) / Cm
Facebook engagement
For Facebook a neat example of a measure of ROI for your Facebook Page would be % feedback. Facebook handily tells you how this is calculated – and what is not included – though of course you can cover off links by only using bit.ly which comes with built-in metrics of its own:

FANS      

Average ER

0 –10k 0,96 %
10k – 20k 0,29 %
20k – 50k 0,21 %
50k – 100k 0,19 %
100k – 200k 0,16 %
200k – 500k 0,13 %
500k – 1 000 k 0,11 %
1 000 - ~ 0,09

It only measures comments and likes, and no other actions (such as video plays and link clicks). The feedback percentage is computed as (comments + likes)/Impressions. Facebook analytics specialists Socialbakers have even given an estimate from their clients depending on the Facebook Page size which is useful too (see table above).

When you are ready you can also try checking out FB Insight stats on fans vs active users to find out who to better target to improve engagement. Ultimately, to reiterate, it’s a question of taking is step by step, aligning with business objectives.

Simple launch plan for a new music app community


To complete the marketing challenge of coming up with a June-December launch plan for a music community with a target of 500K users I would need access to customer segmentation data, and the current customer personas. But let’s just have some fun without that standard data and have a look at comparing Facebook vs Extole, following yesterday’s blog post on the social referral platform.

Given the challenge of finding 500K subscribers over 6 months it’s an interesting fact that 478K Facebook users aged 18-55 in the UK currently list the Apple iPod as an interest. You could therefore work backwards from this figure, and breakdown the demographics into their component parts, thanks to the Facebook ads tool, and in fact 373K of that group are 18-year-olds.

To deliver the core community base you need at least one core ‘killer’ channel which will deliver the kind of numbers you want, at a cost you can afford. The options that spring to mind are:

(1) Facebook adverts – e.g. ads for a 1 month’s free subscription offer incentive.

(2) A social referral campaign – a gift in return for a subscriber using a top class platform like Extole which will track the metrics. You’ll see from the attached deck that music is on average the top performing social referral sector.

There are plenty of great supporting ideas such as partnering with National Express who have already run a music festivals comp’, running affiliate ads, or working with a mobile company at festivals to save on costs while promoting your new music app. But the bottom line is that there needs to be one central channel for delivery so I’ve focused on that.

A top level view of the big numbers, based solely on the 373K 18-year-olds as a way of exploring the options:

Facebook

  • Users: 373,620 x 0.94 cost per click = £351,202.8 (frequency and duration determined by ppc budget)
  • Cost of 1 month’s music app free subscription at £1 a pop = £373,620
  • Total cost = £724,822.8
Social referral using Extole
  • Platform cost: $5k implementation to build and launch the program. $3k monthly subscription for management and optimization with a 12 month contract, total = $41,000/£25,870 – costs may vary for a June – Dec time frame though as a rule of thumb the longer these social referral campaigns run the more effective they are.
  • Incentive cost: 1 month’s free subscription to both referrers and sign-ups = £373,620.
  • Total cost: £399,490
This is without the benefit of your market segmentation, but I trust it is shows what the core acquisition channel might look like. There is of course the connected issue of retention of the ’1 month subscribers’ to consider too.
On a qualitative level I believe a good foundation of the online marketing strategy retention would be to follow the GiffGaff community-led model where you would take the ‘bull by the horns’ and make the product feedback very open to customers to build advocacy and loyalty, as well as build a community peer-to-peer playlist swapping etc.

Have you tried social referrals to promote your online community or business?


By a neat coincidence as I was looking at ways to market a new music app I came across the news that leading social referral tool Extole has just raised $10m in funding. That doesn’t surprise me as their product makes a lot of sense, as underlined in VentureBeat’s report:

“Nearly every company has a social presence these days, but personal recommendations are often a more powerful way to boost sales. If you’ve never heard about a company before, but your friend has, you’ll likely trust her opinion over that of a complete stranger. But keeping track of how much customer referrals really help your business can be hard, so Extole has created a way to track word-of-mouth marketing.

“The service seeks to find and tend to customer advocates, people who rally around and talk up their favorite brands and get rewards for doing so. Extole not only provides tools for clients to market themselves, it also advises its clients on how to use its services, achieve certain goals, and gain brand ambassadors.”

You can measure and budget carefully, and in return receive qualified referrals who thanks to the social nature of the acquisition (at least in theory) are also more likely to stay loyal customers compared with more classic tools like Facebook advertising, despite its granular targeting merits. Enough talk, take a look at my SlideShare I put together for virtual card provider Entropay a couple of months back.

Applying lean start-up principles and practice to building corporate communities


On Monday evening I took the bull by the horns and jumped into the debate over how best to deal with building a successful corporate community at Cass Business School, organised by BrightLemon. And to give it some zip, some urgency, I based the story that was narrated with the help of some simple PowerPoint slides on my failure to create a successful online community at Shopping.com.

A confession first, being let’s say not one of the best public speakers (great to see that Cass was holding a Toastmasters event that same evening) I did my talk sitting down, and using a microphone, which was more fun and conversational in style. Anyhow in similar laid back fashion I have decided to publish my slides in text format, to add some reflective value (and pop in the occasion image now and then)..though I do relent at the end to include the clutch of slides with a lean start-up example.

My second slide was about the real subject of the talk, which is learning from setting up community to deliver to the Shopping.com mission, and how I might do it again differently with the benefit of lean start-up tools.

I also mentioned that my desire to talk about the value of start-up tools for building communities is based on discussions with community managers and entrepreneurs on the LinkedIn Community Roundtable Group and e-mint, who’ve shown support for the concept:

“I can’t say that I have really applied them directly to community building, but I certainly think that the approach makes sense. Since the fundamental tenet of the lean start-up is to be customer-focused and to continually seek actual customer validation for what you are creating, it seems to intuitively fit as a model for community development, agreed Terry Coatta.

“The biggest challenge I would foresee is critical mass. As a lean startup with a specific product/service you can engage in customer validation with a small number of customers — sometimes even just a single one. But in a community, you need to have interaction amongst the community members. So you clearly need to have more than one :-) The actual numbers are going to depend on how willing people are to contribute, but given the 90/9/1 rule of thumb, it would seem like you might need at least some tens of people involved in order to have even a minimal level of interaction.”

A little about my background experience in social media and community starting at Headshift at the end of 2005 (now part of the Dachis Group) and most recently working for eBay Inc’s Shopping.com.

Shopping.com reaches the peak

And as way of a sneaky-peeky into what I was up to at Shopping.com check out this quick overview of one successful social media campaign activity at the top price comparison site:

The original aim of Shopping.com mission was to be ‘best place to buy online when don’t know what to buy’ which was supported by a NPS led user value proposition (UVP) piloted in our German (DE) site with improvements to search, data, product selection, and community itself as the means to improve guidance for customers.

And by the 3rd quarter of 2010 our community strategy was starting to pay dividends in DE, with good quality customer conversations, leading to successful offline top contributor meet-ups.

While in the UK we did not take part in the UVP I did get chance to look ahead for 2011 and put together a top level plan which in retrospect had its simple merits as strategy for content and community optimization:

{1} SEO:
Better SEO content => new visitors; better member content => better SEO content (revenue)

{2} Community:
Better incentives/feedback => better community (cost)

{3} Conversions:
Loyal community members => increased conversions (revenue)

The obvious weakness was in failing to understand how to get a community contribute to revenue, except in terms of creating reviews and guides which would rank highly for SEO. But I only got to try that out with a social SEO approach with a test with user-generated 40 guides created at the end of my tenure.

What I did learn was the value of using social media channels to listen and learn from the customer, as with Google’s ZMOT’s observation that people will search for reviews on small purchases like Scotch tape, understanding that for the customer that the smallest issues had significance.

But the strategy ultimately did not deliver the expected positive results, and community while remaining in place on the site was called off as a ‘key business driver’ for Shopping.com.

So with the benefit of this experience what would I do differently? And thinking about previous community building experience at ICAEW when we considered surveying members on the first iteration of IT Counts, maybe the answer is as simple as asking potential community members if it’s what they want.

In other words testing the assumptions with a basic ‘mvp’ which we could quickly validate and pivot from if necessary. To illustrate this I used the nice example from the Lean Startup Machine London event I attended recently, with an idea for a per-to-peer mobile dating app called appropriately ‘You Never Know’. There’s a full list of startup entries here.

But of course there’s plenty to consider overall to make sure your community is a success, as this expert blog post from Dachis which I used in one of my slides highlights 13 high-level points to consider, including those which relate to testing with your customers/community. Clearly lean tools apply to tasks such as building to solve both a customer and brand problem, but don’t forget the value of applying a metrics led approach to validation, as outlined in the concluding slideshare below from one of the Lean Startup Machine London presenters.

I hope that’s inspired some interest in the use of lean start-up tools to validate your community proposition. But it’s also worth adding the point made to me by Rosie Sherry, that these tools aren’t just for pre-launch validation – but can add value throughout the business cycle when used with an existing community of customers:

“Another angle to look at it is how lean startup methods + communities can help build a product/business.

“In my situation, for example, I started an online community that has grown to be something special. As a consequence, it takes much more effort than an odd hour here or there to maintain. As a result, we are trying to figure out ways to create it into a sustainable business – in a lean startup kind of way. We hadn’t, when we started it, thought it would turn into what it has today. But in order to maintain it, we do need to figure out how to make it work financially.

“One advantage, is that we can reach out quite easily to people to get feedback. The community members are also not shy in saying if they think what we are doing sucks!”

Lean startup metrics

Learning from failure, listening to customers


If there’s on thing I understand the value of it’s learning from failure, with experience of working on a start-up which failed to deliver on it’s initial promise to exiting from Shopping.com after a change in strategy. The good news is that failure is an important part of what being part of a lean start-up, when you go out and test customer assumptions through validation and experiment only to discover assumptions are wrong and you need to change strategy – pivoting to use the jargon.

Indeed the validated learning approach to quote our onsite mentor Gordon Guthrie, “gets companies only to build things customers want and helps startups get to cashflow and traction earlier. Most startups fail in cashflow – burning through any money (from funders, from founders, from family) before reaching a definitive conclusion on their proposition”.

The learning I had working last weekend came from an idea called Spare Space – based on the assumption that companies would want to rent out spare office space in the form of meeting rooms. But when we looked at the customer assumption from the supply side, it looked pretty obvious businesses would not want folks using their meeting rooms. (That said renting out desk space is a winning business in the US known as Loosecubes, where the co-working supplier benefits with creative mix of new business people). The issue comes with meeting spaces.

Spare SpacePhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

Fortunately the team found there were a good sample of pubs and restaurants that had meeting rooms which they wanted to get more use from. So the supplier side seemed sorted. But then the consensus as to the demand side seemed to break down, and the end pitch was for any meeting rooms which didn’t seem to work. Did we fail? Sure. But what I learned was the value of the MVP approach to focusing in on what the customer wants.

Explaining the power of the Facebook social graph using containers and social networks


I had a great time at Lean Startup Machine London this weekend, learning about using lean startup ideas and practice from a social networking perspective to build a business. It helped that I’d already been to hear Eric Ries talk, thanks to a tip off from Andy at Crocodile Clips (currently looking for investment himself I believe, and I picked up a good contact for him at the event). And also because I’ve been helping Barnaby with his Name That Place concept, thinking about how to get proof of concept and wondering about what the best way to take that forward (btw he’s not in the office today at Regus, but moving lodgings to a house boat near Vauxhall:-)

So while I promised myself a lazy day today I wanted to quickly note down two things. I still have to prepare for a talk at Cass next week on using MVP to help corporates build successful online communities, and I still have ot find a job/drive revenue before my severance from eBay runs out in X number of weeks. So time is short and comes with a cost attached, and before I pop into town to watch Mr Spacey in ‘Margin Call’ here’s a couple of quick creative thoughts.

Containers – in a container (paper page) – in a container (photo) – in a container (blog post) – etc

Mapping containers to networksPhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

I like to try and simplify things where possible as that way you can get difficult things done more easily right? So in thinking about what works as a social business I came up with the idea of matching up ‘containers’ – that is simply a tool for mapping how a social concept might work. The example above is an attempt to show across 3 degrees of separation how in rough and ready terms a business like Airbnb  works best.

In trying to find somewhere to stay you are first going to see if any of your ‘friends’ live in the city you are visiting (the idea behind Airbnb is providing cheap places for people to stay in other people’s homes). But the chances they have a room in that city are ‘unlikely’ as your friendship network is relatively small. So you turn to ‘friends of friends,’ and they are ‘likely’ as they are my the virtue of wider geo-distribution going to have a possible place to stay. But maybe the night you want to stay they are busy? So the next container along, which for the sake of 3rd degree of separation symmetry I’ve called ‘friends of friends of friends’ is very likely to provide the room you want, and for the time/date you want. (It’s a nice fact that the average user on Facebook is connected to everyone else by 3.74 degrees of separation, so you can see why Facebook based commerce using the social graph is so potentially powerful).

As a side note I really liked the pivot by lean startup participants ‘You never know’ led by ‘Easy Ed’ (alliteration really helps remember ppl’s first names:-) who started with the idea of an app where you could get matched up with single people in your immediate social network, but found that people didn’t want to do that for themselves. But then on pivoting realised that ‘smug married’ people would happily introduce single people to other single people. Neat change of the social networking dynamic, from ‘doing it for yourself’ as a single person not working due to fear of rejection for example to someone with a networking ‘doing it for you’. So maybe that’s why blind dates work, so long as someone you know sets it up for you!

Superbowl Sunday: data crunchers vs grandmothers

While I was talking to Javi he happened to mention one of LSM London teams ‘hstream’ had a real time Twitter analytics idea. I got excited at the idea of tracking sentiment around Patriots vs Giants and even had a look at the odds at Betfair. I also tried Twitter manually, so to speak, and found and favorited one tweet which from a gambler’s perspective seemed to stand out. It turned out to be right, the 94-year-old grandmother backed the Giants, the winners of the Superbowl XLVI. Wonder what the results of hstream’s real time data analytics were?

94-year-old grandmother predicts Giants to winPhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

Why people are wrong about Mark Zuckerberg


Party TimePhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

Hey the party's only 1% finished!

It seems a lot of people have got it wrong about Mark Zuckerberg.They scoff at his suggestion that with the impending $5bn Facebook IPO that he’s not in it for the money:

“We don’t build services in order to make money, we make money in order to build better services. Facebook was not originally created to be a company. It was built to accomplish a social mission–to make the world open and more connected.”

But as the recent BBC documentary ‘Mark Zuckerberg: Inside Facebook’ got right (and the film ‘The Social Network’ got wrong – cute screen-grab above) a billion dollars ain’t cool, turning down $1bn is cool. Which is what Mr Zuckerberg did when Yahoo made an offer of close to $1bn for the global social networking site (Facebook record 11 companies with 14 offers in total) in 2006.

Logically then if he was ‘in it for the money’ wouldn’t he have cashed in his ‘cash cow’ there and then? So now he’s both cool and soon-to-be-be very, very rich. What’s not to be jealous of?

 

How useful is an entrepreneurial approach to building online communities?


This is the question I asked other community managers on the yahoo e-mint forum today – ‘How useful is an entrepreneurial approach to building online communities?’ And the reason why is because I’ve been working on a start-up idea since leaving a community management position at eBay, so it seemed a good opportunity to put together a presentation on how lean start-up methods can help build community, based on the methodology put forward by Eric Ries.

I’ve already had a couple of responses so I thought I’d share them more widely here too, starting with the reply from Benjamin Southworth:

This seems to be a slightly tautological question.

If you were building a community in other way than iterating on results you’d not be listening so your community would fail.

Eric Ries ideas regarding Lean, MVPs, testing, iterations and pivoting are solutions to the idea of silicon valley excess of funding runways, burn rates and throwing money as a solution to viral traction.

Ergo, all successful communities follow a listen, test, adapt, build, rinse, repeat model and always have.

And indeed Benjamin is right, building online community seems to follow very similar lines to the start-up building model – and that’s why I wanted to reflect on the subject. Eric Ries does aim with his method to cover corporate entrepreneurs, not just the Silicon Valley kind. Again why I thought it could be useful for online communities within organisations, not just for start-ups.

Fortunately I’ve signed up for a long weekend of lean start-up workshop this weekend, where I’ll get a good chance to reflect on this with my colleagues for 3 days. Should be fun from reading the introduction!

Lean Startup Machine is a competitive weekend workshop where you will apply Lean Startup techniques in the real world. Join a team and launch a startup–not by writing code– but by validating and iterating your key hypotheses quickly. Learn to identify the key risks in your business model through hands-on mentorship and our unique framework of tools.

Over the course of the weekend you will do the following:

  • Ideate a startup or work on the one you have now
  • Practice Customer Discovery
  • Research your Target Market
  • Practice Customer Development
  • Test your Assumptions in Iterations
  • Understand your Business Model
  • Iterate and Pivot (when necessary)
  • Build something you can Launch
  • Present your Validated Learnings

I promise I’ll post the fruits of my labour after my short talk on this subject at Cass Business School, ‘Applying lean start-up principles and practice to building corporate communities’ on 13 February.

 

Name that place – the elevator pitch


So what’s the Name That Place all about? The elevator pitch is this – a simple game of ‘i-spy’ but brought u to date by playing with your mobile or computer. Looking at i-spy from the online p.o.v., it came with a ready made container – a car or a room; and a ready made community of players, passengers or fiends.  And with mobile phones, mobile apps, and geo-tagging the possibilities technically mean theory an online Name that Place is superficially attractive to a wide range of people in a wide range of settings. But in reality it would only convert from the potential to the engaged game if people start to use it.

So how do you get proof of concept, through people using it? It’s already been shown to work in Barnaby’s home town in Sandbach through his Facebook Page. That’s because it was also with a limited container of 100 participants who all knew someone who knew someone.

So as per Facebook’s genesis take-up is down to a shared social network to compete with and a shared physical environment from which to source the pics.

Lean Eric


I was there!
I got to attend the BLN Lean Start-Up event last night, with Eric Ries presenting his thoughts to an audience of entrepreneurs. I talked to one attendee who’d flown in from an unnamed European country just for the event, and a lawyer who’d changed from smart casual into a suit and tie. In other words I was just there to listen, and here’s what I heard. (By the way I did get the chance to make friends with Davor Hebel from Fidelity Growth Partners, following Eric’s prompting to introduce ourselves.)

The audience for Eric RiesPhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

Essentially Eric said that the traditional tools of scientific management were not so much use to entrepreneurs, whatever type or size of organisation. That what was needed though was a validated means to manage entrepreneurial activity. This is what he suggests the Lean Startup methodology provides.

Suits vs engineers
Of course it’s not perfect, as he admitted when he presents to engineers they blame the lack of success on the business people, and vice versa. So there’s still some magic required to apply in bringing the business and tech people together, but how to do that seemed to lacking? Fortunately not long after I spotted a nice example of a lean approach to product development in the recent edition of Wired UK, with the piece about German games company wooga’s approach, which mixes e-commerce, usability, and games design to great effect: ‘Test. Test. Test: How wooga turned the games business into a science’. Love wooga’s slogan for sure: “Be fast and be bold. Only do features that increase DAU monetisation.” DAU stands for daily active users, btw. Which if you think about it is also a great way to get engineers and business folks to agree, using the real time data to guide product development. Certainly this holding entrepreneurs to account is a big theme with Eric Ries, that you need to do small scale testing to get validated results. So there it is the accounting method is the means to unite suits and engineers!

Q. So how does this accounting method work? Answer below, from WSJ’s ‘The Nearly Cult of the Lean Start-Up’

A. It has to be quantifiable or this is all a waste of time

This idea of value is what Mr. Ries means when he talks about accounting. “It has to be quantifiable or this is all a waste of time,” he says. We can draw a lot of valuable lessons from science. The proof in science is that you have learned how to do experiments that show the right results. The same thing is true for validated learning. If we have learned something interesting, then prove it by building products that are in line with that learning.”

This is the development cycle Mr. Ries calls “build-measure-learn”. Build your product, see how people use it, what do they like, what do they click on, what do they hate, and use that to inform your next decisions.

But in order to know how successful or otherwise you are, you need a system of evaluating value.

“That is accounting. We have all been indoctrinated with thinking that accounting is about tracking money, but money just doesn’t work very well when the numbers are so small, like in an early stage start up. There is no RoI, there is no profitability. Everything is close enough to zero that the accountants don’t care.

If 10 people in a row hate my product, isn’t that telling me something?

“The units of innovation accounting are not the gross numbers. Rather than focus on how much money we make, we might look at what is the percentage of customers who pay. We have to look at other things.

“The nice thing about those metrics is that they are not market-size dependent. If you have 100 customers you can already say what percentage are paying. If it is zero then I can already start to be a bit worried about the model.

“If 10 people in a row hate my product is that statistically significant? It is is not conclusive evidence, but it is certainly telling you something.” [note: this is the validated means to create a minimum viable product or 'MVP', one which has been tested and validated using accounting techniques]

Judging from the size of his audience at the Business Leaders Network event on Monday, the buzz afterwards, and the fact that Mr. Ries has had almost 20 meetings in his brief time in the U.K. and Ireland (including a meeting at 10 Downing Street), he is preaching to a receptive audience.

Eric Ries The Lean Startup London 004Photo by marklittlewood1

Update: a couple of things have happened since 16 January:

1. I am attending the lean start-up weekend starting 3rd February to better understand the Ries methodology (and jargon;-)

2. Using insights from the evening and this weekend I am presenting at Cass Business Business School on 13th February on using this approach in building online communities on existing platforms that is, to clarify!