Your Friends Are More Interesting Than You On Average

The Friendship Paradox

Feld’s friendship paradox states that ‘your friends have more friends than you, on average’. This paradox arises because extremely popular people, despite being rare, are overrepresented when averaging over friends.

Using a sample of the Twitter firehose, we confirm that the friendship paradox holds for >98% of Twitter users. Because of the directed nature of the follower graph on Twitter, we are further able to confirm more detailed forms of the friendship paradox: everyone you follow or who follows you has more friends and followers than you.This is likely caused by a correlation we demonstrate between Twitter activity, number of friends, and number of followers.

But wait, there’s more..

In addition, we discover two new paradoxes: the virality paradox that states ‘your friends receive more viral content than you, on average’, and the activity paradox, which states ‘your friends are more active than you, on average’. The latter paradox is important in regulating online communication. It may result in users having difficulty maintaining optimal incoming information rates, because following additional users causes the volume of incoming tweets to increase super-linearly. (And this also may relate to why in large complex communities personalized moderation works better than community moderation, as explored in my last blog post).

While users may compensate for increased information flow by increasing their own activity, users become information overloaded when they receive more information than they are able or willing to process. We compare the average size of cascades that are sent and received by overloaded and underloaded users. And we show that overloaded users post and receive larger cascades and they are poor detector of small cascades.

What are the dangers of overload?

Those users who become overloaded, measured by receiving far more incoming messages than they send out, are contending with more tweets than they can handle. Controlling for activity, they are more likely to participate in viral cascades, likely due to receiving the popular cascades multiple times. Any individual tweet’s visibility is greatly diluted for overloaded users, because overloaded users receive so many more tweets than they can handle. Because of the connection between cognitive load and managing information overload, the present results suggest that users will dynamically adjust their social network to maintain some optimal individual level of information flux. (What does this mean for Facebook’s growth?)

Friendship Paradox Redux: Your Friends Are More Interesting Than You – Nathan O. Hodas, Farshad Kooti, Kristina Lerman (PDF of the paper)
http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.3480

Explaining the power of the Facebook social graph using containers and social networks

I had a great time at Lean Startup Machine London this weekend, learning about using lean startup ideas and practice from a social networking perspective to build a business. It helped that I’d already been to hear Eric Ries talk, thanks to a tip off from Andy at Crocodile Clips (currently looking for investment himself I believe, and I picked up a good contact for him at the event). And also because I’ve been helping Barnaby with his Name That Place concept, thinking about how to get proof of concept and wondering about what the best way to take that forward (btw he’s not in the office today at Regus, but moving lodgings to a house boat near Vauxhall:-)

So while I promised myself a lazy day today I wanted to quickly note down two things. I still have to prepare for a talk at Cass next week on using MVP to help corporates build successful online communities, and I still have ot find a job/drive revenue before my severance from eBay runs out in X number of weeks. So time is short and comes with a cost attached, and before I pop into town to watch Mr Spacey in ‘Margin Call’ here’s a couple of quick creative thoughts.

Containers – in a container (paper page) – in a container (photo) – in a container (blog post) – etc

Mapping containers to networksPhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

I like to try and simplify things where possible as that way you can get difficult things done more easily right? So in thinking about what works as a social business I came up with the idea of matching up ‘containers’ – that is simply a tool for mapping how a social concept might work. The example above is an attempt to show across 3 degrees of separation how in rough and ready terms a business like Airbnb  works best.

In trying to find somewhere to stay you are first going to see if any of your ‘friends’ live in the city you are visiting (the idea behind Airbnb is providing cheap places for people to stay in other people’s homes). But the chances they have a room in that city are ‘unlikely’ as your friendship network is relatively small. So you turn to ‘friends of friends,’ and they are ‘likely’ as they are my the virtue of wider geo-distribution going to have a possible place to stay. But maybe the night you want to stay they are busy? So the next container along, which for the sake of 3rd degree of separation symmetry I’ve called ‘friends of friends of friends’ is very likely to provide the room you want, and for the time/date you want. (It’s a nice fact that the average user on Facebook is connected to everyone else by 3.74 degrees of separation, so you can see why Facebook based commerce using the social graph is so potentially powerful).

As a side note I really liked the pivot by lean startup participants ‘You never know’ led by ‘Easy Ed’ (alliteration really helps remember ppl’s first names:-) who started with the idea of an app where you could get matched up with single people in your immediate social network, but found that people didn’t want to do that for themselves. But then on pivoting realised that ‘smug married’ people would happily introduce single people to other single people. Neat change of the social networking dynamic, from ‘doing it for yourself’ as a single person not working due to fear of rejection for example to someone with a networking ‘doing it for you’. So maybe that’s why blind dates work, so long as someone you know sets it up for you!

Superbowl Sunday: data crunchers vs grandmothers

While I was talking to Javi he happened to mention one of LSM London teams ‘hstream’ had a real time Twitter analytics idea. I got excited at the idea of tracking sentiment around Patriots vs Giants and even had a look at the odds at Betfair. I also tried Twitter manually, so to speak, and found and favorited one tweet which from a gambler’s perspective seemed to stand out. It turned out to be right, the 94-year-old grandmother backed the Giants, the winners of the Superbowl XLVI. Wonder what the results of hstream’s real time data analytics were?

PS: Post-Sony I now know this Giants case to be an example of #thinslicing on yes:-)

94-year-old grandmother predicts Giants to winPhoto by Stuart Glendinning Hall

Yammer time

Yammer event notes – for your ease of scanning:

Introduction

Yammer won a 2011 Forrester award working with Deloitte Australia.

Big plus is its availability as a mobile app.

Checkk out the Forbes article – Social Power..(7 Sept 2011)..as way of background.

Yammer now does the job of external partner networking too.

Secret sauce = Yammer’s governance tools..

Integrates with MS Sharepoint, same profile data..

Check out the network toggle – it means you can easily switch between internal and external Yammer networks. One account solution, with multiple instances, is unique to Yammer.

Yammer is safe harbor compliant too.

Also contains (as with LinkedIn) a Groups functionality..for example create a group to handle urgent requests to ensure the network is not overloaded, was one case cited.

Question?

Is there an issue with global collaboration when questions and answers are out of sync due to time differences..what’s the solution apart from start early and work late?!

Benefits

Communications internally needs to be transparent, agile and fast – which allows for innovation to be transparent, agile and fast too.

Generally speaking you want to use tech tools to accelerate your business; eg so in case of Yammer to use it for HR on-boarding to get up to speed; plus advantage when asking real time questions in the field, with cross-company response.

Also use for mergers and acquisitions. Can see big four firms using this for best quality advice, and to enable their clients to take advantage of it to ensure smooth mergers.

Forrester found ROI payback on Yammer is on average over company study 4.3 months.

Adoption

Issue with getting ppl to take part? Create mini case studies of benefit. Is there a profile search where the admin can see who might be interested in topics? Might help uptake… Need to create guidelines like Flickr to encourage use by grassroots and by a snr exec to create a safe and shared culture of corp conversation.

Sell the benefits to snr exec in terms of grter visibilty, wide area geo coverage, not to mention vs competitive advantage;-)

Case Studies: To get adoption LexisNexis forced conversations via yammer and bked by ceo. Challenges for execs in dealing with 2 way comms. So ‘pull’ rather than ‘push’ comms.

Really intuitive simple features appealed to Shell.

Used by ACCA too in working with KPMG. Helps to encourage ‘b2c’ tone of conversation to Yammer;-) in theory mean better fit to talk online to real ext customers. Most successful use is mobile rather than desktop feed.

Trick of balance btwn control and innovation;-)

Tips. Put exclusive content on Yammer. Plus make sure execs are engaged.

Yammer for R & D?

Duplication and discovery of existing innocation. Speed to delivery. Ppl faster to get up to speed! Phew:-)

And finally, back to Deloitte Australia to conclude!

This video mentions the value of fun in getting adoption – certainly can help seems to be the consensus as long as it’s handled right.

Social networking ability & field sense

Wayne Gretzky-Style ‘Field Sense’ May Be Teachable http://shar.es/m3E8W An application to social networking influence is my thought. Cheers!

My tweet today (above) follows my last blog post on the importance of location, rather than the number of connections, in determining an individual’s influence: “we may have got too focused on valuing networks in terms of who is the best connected. In fact the most influential person in the network comes down to location, rather than connections,” according to the research paper ‘Identifying Influential Spreaders in Complex Networks’.

In other words if location is important, and if networks are dynamic, then maybe you can get better at being in the right place at the right time to maximise your influence? Perhaps the sports science of ‘field sense’ has something to offer here to online social networking strategy? It’s just a hunch for now.

Half of iPhone users access social networking from their mobile

There is no doubt that social networking has become the phenomenon of the age. It has moved forward with such a pace that users have probably out stripped technology in terms of the number of applications available. Many of the applications available for the iPhone have connectivity to networks such as Facebook and Twitter, but many have only a limited range of functions when compared to the main networks. The iPhone has shown itself to be uniquely placed to move telephone networking forward; however, the applications available do not help it to be fully integrated into the wider world of social networking.

Few of the applications available are ideal. Many of them have limited functions which only work locally, so it is up to the user in the end to choose an application which is going to be of most use to them. Some of the applications, such as Bluepulse are fairly simple applications which are simple and fast, but lack many of the functions users of Facebook and Twitter are used to. Although it has the appearance of a web page, with friends, messaging and status updates, that is about all the application has to offer. Facebook has an application itself, which although functional, is inferior to the real thing. It has e-mail recognition and integrated chat; however the applicati0n does not run in the background which means you have to be logged in. This means that e-mail and chat are not active all the time. The application does not have location awareness, which some of the other applications have. Another application which demonstrates the wide variation in functionality is iFob. This application is fine if you are within a reasonably close proximity, so great if you are in a concert or bar, and may be useful for business networking events. However, you cannot add friends and can only be used locally.

Loopt is an application which has Twitter and Facebook integration, although actually linking up with Facebook friends is not all that easy. People profiles are fairly simple with just a name and picture. Twitterlator may be one of the better applications for Twitter users. With full search and full friend functionality as well as camera, and location integration, it also has an emergency button which can use to alert friends. However this application can be slow at times and still does not run in the background.

There is no doubt that there is huge potential for social networking applications, and companies are probably still at the stage where we are gathering information. There are a number of business networks starting to spring up which will link people with similar status or positions within companies so that ideas can be exchanged. Almost fifty per cent of iPhone users access social networking sites on iPhone, which is almost twelve times the market average, so the phone and it`s demographic are ideally placed for a bright future in social networking. For up to date iPhone news, go to apple iphone

Customers + social networking = value/recession

During a recession social applications such as communities, social networking sites and word-of-mouth marketing will prove worthwhile because they depend not on a diminishing ad budget, but on an abundant resource: customers, so says the new Awareness report which in turn quotes Forrester Research:

“Conventional wisdom says that experimental media get cut in tough economic times. But social applications like communities, social networking sites, and word-of-mouth marketing are proving themselves, and they depend on an abundant resource — your customers — rather than a scarce one — advertising dollars. In a recession, social applications with measurable results will pay off.” (Forrester Research, Strategies for Interactive Marketing In A Recession, February 2008)

Note: it’s the measurable results that count!

Social networking – good for small business?

The internet is a “giant cocktail party”, according to business expert Seth Godin. Here, he gives his take on whether sites like Twitter and Facebook matter to your business (clue: a lot of networking on the web is low value; help yourself by helping others = good networking). Watch other videos with Seth Godin and Tom Peters in Inside the Entrepreneurial Mind: New Perspectives on Business.

The future is orange

Demos report (funded by Orange) published today 29 October argues that social networking sites could help companies beat the recession (report pdf).

I liked this extract from the report: “Consultancy firm McKinsey has studied the importance of social or employee networks for businesses. They found in their research that ‘the formal structures of companies… don’t explain how most of their real day-to-day work gets done’.

“They go on to argue that to capture that value, these network relationships need to be formalised in ways that do not interrupt the looseness from which their value emerges.” (Bryan, Matson and Weiss, ‘Harnessing the power of informal employee networks’)

Reminds me of a post I wrote back in July on ‘How to survive a recession social network style’ quoting the example of BMW’s comms strategy from the early 1990s recession.

It’s not rocket science

I pride myself on working *with* people, rather than doing things *for* them; it is the essence of user-led web 2.0 strategy & practice, no?  (My twitter today)

For example see Gartner report on social networks and public policy which underlines the importance of this for buidling communities online: “Di Maio warned that if the public sector tries to retain excessive control of these networks they want to exploit, it might turn people away, and said government must “recognise that spontaneity is needed for success”.

So to reiterate as a business design principle a community is best built *with* its users, rather than *for* them. It’s not rocket science.

Charlie does surf

Hmm, the US military gets the value of social networking to discover expertise. Extract from Guardian article below:

In simple terms, iLink is a machine learning-based system that models users and content in a social network and then points the user to relevant content.

The team developed the basic social networking technology, which combines workflow and analytics. The research and development effort was part of a five-year project called CALO (Cognitive Agent that Learns and Organizes), and funded by the US Department of Defense.

“They wanted a real system to be built and deployed into military settings,” said Jeffrey Davitz, an SRI scientist and co-developer of the iLink technology. “What we did was connect the text mining technology that had been done in social media and connected it to the Web 2.0 applications,” he added.

The iLink system had several goals, including real-time learning by matching queries and communities users; adapting to user demands and directions, providing accuracy in message targeting and routing and, finally, dynamic user profile correction based on community behaviours and identification of community experts.

The learning in iLink occurs by watching a natural social network, and selecting effective strategies that emerge from the system as the members try to solve problems. The system continuously monitors the real social network and it is capable of drafting from the social network’s learning.