No longer risk, now uncertainty rules

Hmm, interesting paragraph on the credit squeeze and the times we live in:

Excerpt from the Complexity Digest: “So the rules of the game have now fundamentally changed. Our global financial system has become so staggeringly complex and opaque that we’ve moved from a world of risk to a world of uncertainty.

“In a world of risk, we can judge dangers and opportunities by using the best evidence at hand to estimate the
probability of a particular outcome. But in a world of uncertainty, we can’t estimate probabilities, because we don’t have any clear basis for making such a judgment. In fact, we might not even know what the possible outcomes are.

“Surprises keep coming out of the blue, because we’re fundamentally ignorant of our own ignorance. We’re surrounded by unknown unknowns.”

* From Risk To Uncertainty, Thomas Homer-Dixon , 08/03/19, Toronto Globe and
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